Money Management The most important most neglected aspect of automated trading

It is funny how people in forums and people who program expert advisors in general seem to address the problem of finding a profitable system and making it profitable. It seems that most of the time, most of their time and testing is spent on evaluating the entry and exit strategies of the trading strategy. People seem to think that the actual money in the forex market is gained by getting perfect entries and exits all the time, or most of the time.

I have seen people in forums go around for months trying to modify their strategies to make them profitable, they will add filters, add indicators, change the rules, optimize the variables, the indicator periods, add volatility filter, to sum it up, they will do everything they can to further perfect their entry and exit strategies. To further worsen things, most of their efforts are concentrated in the entry to the market, which is the most trivial and unimportant part of forex trading systems (see more on this on my ebook).

I have found out that the most important part of a trading system is not the entry or the exit of the strategy, but the money management. What ? Many people will just be awed by this fact as this is hardly even spoke of and people always neglect its importance when they program an automated trading system. When people buy an EA, they dont really care about how the EA actually manages their money, which is, as I have already said, the most important aspect of the system.

Usually people will use a money management system that just trades a fixed percentage of equity or a fixed lot size. They couldnt do any worse. Trading like this only relies on your account balance, not on the market and any money management system that makes sense, gauges the market to know how much money should be invested. For example, would you invest as much on the stock market now as you did last year ? The answer is NO. Why is this the answer ? Because how much you trade depends on how the market is behaving, is it a "good time" or a "bad time" ? Your money management must depend on both your account balance and market behavior, this is the way professional traders manage their trades. They dont trade X percentage or a fixed lot size, those money management strategies are just naive and precarious.

As I have shown previously, I have been able to take several systems that showed no profit at all and simply by removing all the additional filters that had been added and adding a money management system that made sense I was able to make them profitable. This is something you should NEVER neglect and something in which your attention should be focused. A money management that makes sense will make a system that makes sense and that trades according to how the market actually moves.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems, how I evaluate them, test them and how you to can build and program your own long term profitable automated trading strategy please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

SPREAD BETTING IMPACT MACROECONOMIC DATA TO THE LIQUIDITY OF CALENDAR SPREAD

         

         Time to enter the macroeconomic data is always an important moment for all market participants. At that time, the market for which the specified concerned, there is a significantly increased volume of orders. On the market there are the banks, hedge funds, corporations, speculation companies and individual traders. During the shows the important data outrights (ie the underlying - for example, oil and S & P500 ) carry significant moves. Not once they reach 100 pips in a matter of seconds or minutes. Sometimes its directional movements - only one way. Other times you can watch the traffic up and for a moment the same downward movement. Scenarios can be different.
     

           For Future Traders on calendar spreads time of economic data is also very important. Frequently at this time on the market begins to significantly increased liquidity. It is very important that, despite the increased liquidity, market volatility has not increased significantly. This is very good information for traders and speculators.
          Experienced trader on the spreads markets during the shows of macroeconomic data puts the orders in the market trying to take advantage of liquidity, which increases at this time.They not running away from the market before the fear that the market will perform big moves up or down. Most movements are small - market is still trading in narrow rang and trader using the using the high volume turns futures bid/offer.
   

            Due to the rise liquitity significantly increases the chance of entry into and exit from the positions. When a calendar spread continues to move in the range of 3 - 4 pips despite the enormous growth in the volume, on the market we can place large orders to turn contract with one pips profit. Frequently during major economic data specific instrument can be turned several times within a few minutes of increased volume. The most favorable situation is when spread trading in the two points. Then the trader places the orders bid / offer and waits when liquidity will allow him to get the bid and offer (or vice versa). Turning the instrument several times a high lots can be very profitable.

           The picture below shows the orders window (without queue).
         

Jumping to Conclusions The Neglect of Statistical Significance

One of the most prominent mistakes I have noticed when people try to develop new trading systems or test commercial or free trading systems is their eagerness to jump to conclusions. I believe that the way in which many people evaluate systems and make conclusions about their profitability/unprofitability is actually faulted due to the fact that they dont take into account the significance of their results when evaluating a strategy. On todays post I will write about one -if not the most- important aspect when evaluating any trading system or strategy : Statistical Significance. Through the following paragraphs I will explain to you what this concept is and what its consequences are for expert advisor evaluation and trading system design.

When people design or evaluate a trading strategy they are usually very eager to say something about the performance of a system within a few weeks or a few months. Phrases like - if it works well on demo for a few weeks Ill put it on live - or - it didnt make a profit for 6 weeks - are very common and some of the first things new traders actually learn. The problem is mainly that this short-lived analysis of a trading system usually leads to conclusions which are only representative of short term performance and do not have any validity regarding the long term aspects of a given trading strategy.

I believe that this problem is mainly a consequence of the lack of formation people have regarding statistics - a field which is very important when developping long term performing systems. This science tells us that in order to draw valid conclusions for a given question we must have a big enough sample size. So saying that a system is unprofitable or profitable from a few months of testing is simply not valid because a few months are simply statistically not representative of long term performance. When you evaluate a trading systems performance in the short term you are simply evaluating it under current market conditions and possibly under a temporary draw down cycle which does not appear evident to you due to the short scope of the analysis being done. This is specially important for many systems that have predictably long cycles of draw down which then lead to very profitable trading periods, systems which would most of the time be discarded by people who simply dont evaluate systems in a rigurous manner.

Another problem of this "short term syndrome" is the fact that people quickly jump to conclusions about how to modify a system to make it "perform better". These modifications which are almost NEVER based on an analysis of a statistically significant number of trades may lead to an improvement of performance under current market conditions with a fatal blow to long term trading performance. On the other hand, there will also be a "praise" of systems which perform very well in the short term, often leading to the heavy use of systems that use unsound trading techniques and which put accounts at a great risk of facing a complete wipe out.

So what is a statistically significant sample size ? This question is not very easy to answer since there is no mathematical criteria to put aside a market condition from another. I have discussed this question a few time with a friend of mine who has a major in statistics and we arrived at the conclusion that - according to volatility measures - at least 5 years of analysis are necessary to draw valid conclusions about a trading system. Therefore, when going through system development and the proposal of modifications it becomes necessary to evaluate a modification or performance through the course of a five year period in order to draw valid conclusions.

In the case of systems which ARE back/live testing consistent, five years of live trading are necessary in order to conclude that the adaptability and performance seen in backtesting can effectively be reproduced under future market conditions. If the system is not back/live testing consistent the problem becomes harder as at least an initial 5 years of live trading with no modifications are necessary to make an analysis to propose changes to the system to increase its profitability.

I know that it is actually hard to go through hundreds of trades and evaluate one by one the effect of a certain modification. For most people it is much easier to just evaluate systems for a few months and draw conclusions which are simply not statistically valid meaning that they are not representative of the systems long term performance. Some people even venture to modify systems based on just a few weeks or days of trading, making modification which have an unpredictable effect on long term performance.

It is easy to understand- with such a lack of rigurous analysis and evaluation - why there is an overvaluation of systems that give short-term result and a systematic discarding of some systems that have indeed potential for long term profitability. Most reviewers show little or no knowledge regarding this field and they will be very quick to jump to conclusions without having a clue about the validity of what they are actually saying from a "sample size" point of view. I encourage everyone interested in system design or in automated trading in general to get a basic formation in the field of statistics and particuarly in the field of "hypothesis testing" which evaluates the whole process of drawing valid conclusions from a given statistical sample.

If you would like to learn more about what I have learned in automated trading and how I focus my efforts in the teaching and development of systems which have a high like hood of being profitable in the future please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Easy Profit in Automated Trading Logical Proof of its Nonexistence

Isnt hassle free profit from the forex market all we want ? Definitely the goal of every person that starts to look for an expert advisor - or most at least - is to find a trading system they can simply "set and forget", a trading system that just collects money from the market in a consistent manner with minimal or limited draw down. A "holy grail", so to speak. However, it becomes obvious after a while of being in this business that if it is too good to be true it probably is and that no trading system can provide the owner with profit without an effort to develop knowledge and understanding. However the fact that the other road seems plausible makes a lot of people continue to search for this nonexistent trading system, a quest that brings nothing but disappointment and financial loss for most new traders. On todays post I will be giving you a logic based demonstration that shows why easy profit in automated trading is impossible and why this search is meaningless and will never arrive at your intended result (a system that easily gets you money without any effort).

First of all we must understand the very basic aspects about logic based demonstrations. When we are faced with a given hypothesis there are several ways in which it can be demonstrated to be true. In mathematics this is done in several ways but one of them is of particular interest to my article. You can demonstrate that something is false if the assumption that it is true leads to absurd results. For example, let us test the hypothesis that the addition of two even numbers gives us an odd number (which is false).

Assuming this to be true :

n, m and k are integers (2n is the definition of an even number, 2k+1, the definition of an odd one)

2n+2m = 2k+1
2n+2m-2k = 1 subtract 2k from both sides
2(n+m-k) = 1 factor 2 out
2a = 1 since n, m and -k are integers their addition is another integer (a)

Since 2a is an even number by definition and it is said to be equal to 1, we have an absurd result. No integer times 2 is able to give us 1 as a result. The hypothesis has been proved false because the assumptions that it is true leads to absurd results.

When it comes to making money from a system without any effort we can do the exact same thing. Let us suppose that there is a system that generates a 200% yearly income which can be traded from 100 USD and used successfully by anyone who buys it. Looking into the sales of the most popular experts we could expect this system to be used by at least 30K people during the first 2 years. This means that 300K USD - assuming each person trades the minimum - will be traded within the first 2 years. After ten years the return of this system would have been 17714700000 which is around 17 billion which is above all other market participants for this same time period. If 300K USD were added each year (of course new sales), the results would be even more staggering nearing more than 100 billion USD.

After 20 years, results become even more absurd and the system is now making a return that would be equal to more than the volume available to be traded. That is, all other market participants would be losing money against this system. This reduces the result to absurd levels since the systems profits surpass the amount of money available from the market. In fact, all the money in the world roughly describes what this system would be making.

The conclusions of this thought experiment are therefore quite simple and straightforward. One of the following things must be true :

• If a successful system exists that anyone can trade then there is an inherent - and quite small - volume limitation to its trading that will thereafter make it lose its profitability or its "tradable by anyone" character.
• If a successful mechanical system exists then there must be strong psychological barriers that make it extremely hard to trade for most market participants
• If a successful mechanical system exists then there is bound to be a maximum compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down limitation that forbids it from reaching the above scenario (a limitation on profits).

Through all my research and work I have found that it is certainly possible to have successful mechanical trading systems and I suspect all the above are in fact true statements. Systems that would be easily available for anyone to use would quickly lose this character as a function of volume and become hard to trade for some reason (psychological, increases in the maximum draw down to average compounded yearly profit ratio) and systems that are already successful are bound to be hard to trade or have an inherent profitability limitation that does not allow them to reach the above mentioned scenario.

In the end, logic is simply undeniable. The scenario portrayed before is an absurd outcome that cannot be reached and therefore limitations to its achievement must be contained within the systems themselves. Systems that may seem to show extremely high results must be volume limited and later become much less profitable and harder to trade while mechanical systems that are profitable in the long term are hard to trade by definition. The above logical reasoning also shows us that there is bound to be some form of profitability to draw down limitation which comes from the simple assumption that the above scenario must be avoided. In conclusion, there is simply no easy long term profit in automated trading.

As you see, the simple power of the "reduction to absurdity" logical reasoning allows us to gain a lot of information about the world of automated trading systems merely by the use of a very simple thought experiment. If you have any comments, suggestions, opinions or other similar reasoning exercises, please feel free to leave a comment !

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and gain a true education around this type of systems, their uses, limitations and possibilities please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

The Realm of Automated Forex Trading System

Just how important is an automated system to the Forex trading system?

Before we answer that question, let us first determine how large Forex trading market is. From there, we will know the importance of automated systems for the Forex market.

It is true that the Forex market is the largest market around the world not just in terms of average daily turnover and average revenue per trader. It is also the largest market in terms of participants.

You name it, we've got it. Take a look at the following:

BANKS- they are not just for saving money and lending capital to entrepreneurs, but they are one of the major players in Forex market. Banks cater both to large quantity of speculative trading and daily commercial turnover. Well-established banks can trade billions of dollars worth of foreign currencies everyday. Some of the trades are undertaken on behalf of their clients, but most are through proprietary desks.

COMMERCIAL COMPANIES- these commercial companies trade small quantities of foreign currencies compared to larger banks and their trades produce small and short-term impact on the market rates. However, the trade flows from transactions made by commercial companies are essential factors with regards to the long-term direction of the exchange rate of a certain currency.

CENTRAL BANKS- central banks play an important function in the Forex market. They have the control over the supply of different currency, inflation, and interest rate. In addition, they have also official target rates for the currencies that they are handling. They are responsible for stabilizing the Forex market through the use of foreign exchange reserves. Their intervention in the market is enough to stabilize a certain currency.

INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FIRMS- these firms commonly manage huge accounts on behalf of their clients such as endowments and pension funds. They are using the Forex market to facilitate transactions, specifically in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager bearing an international equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currencies to pay for foreign securities purchases.

RETAIL FX BROKERS- they handle a fraction of the total volume of Forex market. A single retail Forex broker estimates retail volume of between 25 to 50 billion dollars each day, which is estimated to be at 2% of the total market volume.

SPECULATORS- these are individuals who purchase and sell foreign currencies and profit through fluctuations on its price as opposed to popular methods such as interest and dividends. They perform the important role of transferring the risk to individuals who do not wish to bear it.

In Forex market alone, there are already six major players partaking on the $1.8 trillion worth of daily turnover. With a large number of Forex players, there is really a need in switching from manual to automated Forex trading system.

Among the aforementioned major Forex players, the automated trading system is of great advantage to the speculators. Since they focus on the price fluctuations of various foreign currencies in order to profit, the real time data analysis will help them determine trades that will give advantage to them.

There are several automated Forex trading systems available in the market. There are also automated Forex systems that are offered for free or as part of their trading account acquired from their Forex brokers or agents. Such complimentary system packages are typically elementary trading system. Thus, if you are looking for more features, you can avail of it through additional payments.

There are two types of automated Forex trading system. These are discussed in the following:

Desktop-based system- all Forex-related data are stored on your desktop's hard drive. This system is unpopular to Forex traders because all data are susceptible to computer virus contamination and other security problems. Worse, when the computer malfunctions, all essential information might be lost and cannot be retrieved (unless you have some back-up files of your own). However, it is little expensive compared to the other types of automated trading system.

Web-based system- the security of your Forex account and other data are provided by your web-based provider. These are hosted on secured servers. It is also convenient in the sense that there will be no software required and it is universally compatible with your Internet browser.

You may also try different automated trading system demos first so that you will be able to determine the automated Forex trading system that suits your personal preference and needs.

Even if you are just a small-time Forex player, it will be to your advantage if you will use an automated Forex trading system for your future trades.

The Importance of Forex Trading Courses

Being engaged in any business of some sort is truly rewarding. Man has been involved in this kind of endeavor for many years now, in fact, it has been in existence for as long as any man can remember.

Trading is a very good way to do business. Long ago, people traded goods for other goods. Later on, some goods were traded for services, and vice versa. Forex trading is just one of the many forms of trading. For starters, forex trading is simply the trading of the different currencies in the world. It provides absolute liquidity to most investors; it is also known as the least regulated and the largest financial market in the world.

Although trading may seem very easy, when it comes to forex, it's quite different. And if you don't have proper knowledge about it, you will lose a whole lot of money. Doing the trade like the pros can be quite a chore, but if you only know the basics and some advance learning tools, you can do your trade just like them.

There are many forex trading courses that you can choose from. You can attend a forex trading class traditionally (inside the classroom) or you can do it online. Whichever you choose, you will surely learn more and will benefit from it once you do the actual trade. Although it requires additional expenses on your part, the amount that you'll be spending will be doubled or even tripled once you do your actual forex trade.

Trading courses offered to wannabe forex traders teaches all forex trading aspects. You can find institutions which offer the latest software and tools used in forex trading. Aside from that, you will be taught the difference between equities and forex trading. Pros make use of different instruments when doing the actual trade, and through these courses, they will be able to help you choose the best possible instrument that you can use.

You can actually engage in forex trading twenty four hours a day and six days a week. Imagine how much money you can make in so little time; but this can only be realized if you attend forex trading courses.

New traders may enjoy forex trading even without attending the proper course, but in due time, you will realize that you can lose a lot of money if you don't seek professional help. Sometimes, a little help from the outside can be very useful.

Forex trading requires a lot of knowledge about the market itself, and if you hardly have any knowledge about it, you're in big trouble. People who want to engage in business naturally want to make money, and to achieve that in forex trading, you must have a good grip of the different aspects of the trade.

Discipline is one very important trait in doing forex trading. You must have your own plan, and with the help of technical tools used by currency traders, you can go a very long way.

It would be wise to find a course in physical offices so that you can get the most professional and comprehensive learning experience. Check if they also offer study materials to be used at home. The opportunity brought about by the different courses offered in the market is infinite, and any trader can highly benefit from it.

Forex trading courses allows you to have training with real quotes and data. You will be taught the proper skills in risk management, and how you will be able to preserve your capital. You will learn how to make your very own business plan, and your instructor's comments about your work will help you improve the next time you make another plan.

Instructors of these courses are among the best; they have all the experience and knowledge about the trade. Almost any physical office which offers forex trading courses allows their students to do networking, which means they can have alliances and collaborations outside the four walls of the classroom.

You can ask your friends and colleagues who are also into forex trading if they know any forex trading course that is of good teaching quality. Or you can also do some searches online in case you want to attend classes on the net.

Learning the Ropes of Forex trading and Getting Ahead of the Game Early On

In the world of cut-throat business, it pays to know your way around. And in the world of forex trading it pays to know the market, the players and the stakes. In forex trading, you need to know what you're looking at � the value of the currency you're trading, the factors that affect the value of your currency, the trading strategies and the market trends.

Fundamental to forex trading is research. But as we are talking about big bucks here, a good forex trading course would be helpful.

Why Go for a Trading Course

A Forex trading course teaches you how to predict or chart the movements of the market as well as the perfect time to buy and sell a commodity. It familiarizes you with the basic terminologies and the process of trading.

Because forex trading is done in real time and decisions are done on the spot, a trader should be emotionally equipped and prepared to handle the demands, challenges and the stress of the market. And these, one can learn in a forex trading education.

What To Look For in Forex Trading Courses

The Basics. A god forex trading education should include in its program the basics on margins, types of orders and leveraging as these are essential in the forex market transactions. It should teach the basic terminologies, the types of analyses being used, the software and tools and other such important things as charting and leverage. These are essential as the trader learns when to cut back and minimize his losses as well as gain profit.

Analysis. It should also teach you how to analyze common mistakes and at the same time, the ways to avoid such mistakes. Basic to a forex trading course is a detailed discussion on doing technical and fundamental analysis and tools.

Values. More than the theories and the basics involved, a good forex trading education should teach you proper money management and the development of a proper trading disposition and psychology. As the stakes are upped, a trader may become too emotionally involved. It is important that a forex trading course develops the appropriate values needed in money trading, such as discipline, patience and commitment.

Experience. A good forex trading course should provide real life experience through apprenticeship. There is no better teacher than experience, they say, and as forex trading is as real as it can get, forex courses should offer avenues where the student can practice trading. Some courses have live conference rooms or boards where the trader can learn to trade in real time or, in some cases, in a simulated environment. These experiences should also have a one-on-one feedback and forums for discussion and exchange of information and lessons.

For those who'd like to get a good grasp of the market and the rules of the game, there are online sites offering courses and workshops on forex trading. These sites offer courses on risk and money management, trading strategies, technical analysis, market trends and networking. There are also tutorials on the latest softwares and tools being used. There are also online sites that offer lifetime membership and support. Some online schools allow their students to retake the course for updates on the newest trends and strategies. You can try www.trainingacademy.com, www.realtimeforex.com, www.go-forex.net, www.forexmentor.com and www.fxcm.com.

Innovations

With the advent of the Internet, there's already online forex trading, a system that allows corporations and players in the game to do business virtually. With online forex trading, one can check and monitor the value of the currencies, and even trade directly on the internet. It offers trading of almost 15 currencies, and with the growing number of online traders, it spells more possibilities and more earnings.

Of course, nothing beats the real thing. And a successful forex trader's skill and knowledge is developed with continued experience. A forex trading education may or may benefit you, but it sure can spell a difference. With the forex market's volatile environment and fast-paced transactions, one must be fully-equipped with the appropriate tools, knowledge, skill and disposition. The key here is to know the market. Of course, don't forget to read up on the market, learn how to compare the currency values and generally become a better money manager.