Money Management The most important most neglected aspect of automated trading

It is funny how people in forums and people who program expert advisors in general seem to address the problem of finding a profitable system and making it profitable. It seems that most of the time, most of their time and testing is spent on evaluating the entry and exit strategies of the trading strategy. People seem to think that the actual money in the forex market is gained by getting perfect entries and exits all the time, or most of the time.

I have seen people in forums go around for months trying to modify their strategies to make them profitable, they will add filters, add indicators, change the rules, optimize the variables, the indicator periods, add volatility filter, to sum it up, they will do everything they can to further perfect their entry and exit strategies. To further worsen things, most of their efforts are concentrated in the entry to the market, which is the most trivial and unimportant part of forex trading systems (see more on this on my ebook).

I have found out that the most important part of a trading system is not the entry or the exit of the strategy, but the money management. What ? Many people will just be awed by this fact as this is hardly even spoke of and people always neglect its importance when they program an automated trading system. When people buy an EA, they dont really care about how the EA actually manages their money, which is, as I have already said, the most important aspect of the system.

Usually people will use a money management system that just trades a fixed percentage of equity or a fixed lot size. They couldnt do any worse. Trading like this only relies on your account balance, not on the market and any money management system that makes sense, gauges the market to know how much money should be invested. For example, would you invest as much on the stock market now as you did last year ? The answer is NO. Why is this the answer ? Because how much you trade depends on how the market is behaving, is it a "good time" or a "bad time" ? Your money management must depend on both your account balance and market behavior, this is the way professional traders manage their trades. They dont trade X percentage or a fixed lot size, those money management strategies are just naive and precarious.

As I have shown previously, I have been able to take several systems that showed no profit at all and simply by removing all the additional filters that had been added and adding a money management system that made sense I was able to make them profitable. This is something you should NEVER neglect and something in which your attention should be focused. A money management that makes sense will make a system that makes sense and that trades according to how the market actually moves.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems, how I evaluate them, test them and how you to can build and program your own long term profitable automated trading strategy please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Easy Profit in Automated Trading Logical Proof of its Nonexistence

Isnt hassle free profit from the forex market all we want ? Definitely the goal of every person that starts to look for an expert advisor - or most at least - is to find a trading system they can simply "set and forget", a trading system that just collects money from the market in a consistent manner with minimal or limited draw down. A "holy grail", so to speak. However, it becomes obvious after a while of being in this business that if it is too good to be true it probably is and that no trading system can provide the owner with profit without an effort to develop knowledge and understanding. However the fact that the other road seems plausible makes a lot of people continue to search for this nonexistent trading system, a quest that brings nothing but disappointment and financial loss for most new traders. On todays post I will be giving you a logic based demonstration that shows why easy profit in automated trading is impossible and why this search is meaningless and will never arrive at your intended result (a system that easily gets you money without any effort).

First of all we must understand the very basic aspects about logic based demonstrations. When we are faced with a given hypothesis there are several ways in which it can be demonstrated to be true. In mathematics this is done in several ways but one of them is of particular interest to my article. You can demonstrate that something is false if the assumption that it is true leads to absurd results. For example, let us test the hypothesis that the addition of two even numbers gives us an odd number (which is false).

Assuming this to be true :

n, m and k are integers (2n is the definition of an even number, 2k+1, the definition of an odd one)

2n+2m = 2k+1
2n+2m-2k = 1 subtract 2k from both sides
2(n+m-k) = 1 factor 2 out
2a = 1 since n, m and -k are integers their addition is another integer (a)

Since 2a is an even number by definition and it is said to be equal to 1, we have an absurd result. No integer times 2 is able to give us 1 as a result. The hypothesis has been proved false because the assumptions that it is true leads to absurd results.

When it comes to making money from a system without any effort we can do the exact same thing. Let us suppose that there is a system that generates a 200% yearly income which can be traded from 100 USD and used successfully by anyone who buys it. Looking into the sales of the most popular experts we could expect this system to be used by at least 30K people during the first 2 years. This means that 300K USD - assuming each person trades the minimum - will be traded within the first 2 years. After ten years the return of this system would have been 17714700000 which is around 17 billion which is above all other market participants for this same time period. If 300K USD were added each year (of course new sales), the results would be even more staggering nearing more than 100 billion USD.

After 20 years, results become even more absurd and the system is now making a return that would be equal to more than the volume available to be traded. That is, all other market participants would be losing money against this system. This reduces the result to absurd levels since the systems profits surpass the amount of money available from the market. In fact, all the money in the world roughly describes what this system would be making.

The conclusions of this thought experiment are therefore quite simple and straightforward. One of the following things must be true :

• If a successful system exists that anyone can trade then there is an inherent - and quite small - volume limitation to its trading that will thereafter make it lose its profitability or its "tradable by anyone" character.
• If a successful mechanical system exists then there must be strong psychological barriers that make it extremely hard to trade for most market participants
• If a successful mechanical system exists then there is bound to be a maximum compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down limitation that forbids it from reaching the above scenario (a limitation on profits).

Through all my research and work I have found that it is certainly possible to have successful mechanical trading systems and I suspect all the above are in fact true statements. Systems that would be easily available for anyone to use would quickly lose this character as a function of volume and become hard to trade for some reason (psychological, increases in the maximum draw down to average compounded yearly profit ratio) and systems that are already successful are bound to be hard to trade or have an inherent profitability limitation that does not allow them to reach the above mentioned scenario.

In the end, logic is simply undeniable. The scenario portrayed before is an absurd outcome that cannot be reached and therefore limitations to its achievement must be contained within the systems themselves. Systems that may seem to show extremely high results must be volume limited and later become much less profitable and harder to trade while mechanical systems that are profitable in the long term are hard to trade by definition. The above logical reasoning also shows us that there is bound to be some form of profitability to draw down limitation which comes from the simple assumption that the above scenario must be avoided. In conclusion, there is simply no easy long term profit in automated trading.

As you see, the simple power of the "reduction to absurdity" logical reasoning allows us to gain a lot of information about the world of automated trading systems merely by the use of a very simple thought experiment. If you have any comments, suggestions, opinions or other similar reasoning exercises, please feel free to leave a comment !

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and gain a true education around this type of systems, their uses, limitations and possibilities please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

The Realm of Automated Forex Trading System

Just how important is an automated system to the Forex trading system?

Before we answer that question, let us first determine how large Forex trading market is. From there, we will know the importance of automated systems for the Forex market.

It is true that the Forex market is the largest market around the world not just in terms of average daily turnover and average revenue per trader. It is also the largest market in terms of participants.

You name it, we've got it. Take a look at the following:

BANKS- they are not just for saving money and lending capital to entrepreneurs, but they are one of the major players in Forex market. Banks cater both to large quantity of speculative trading and daily commercial turnover. Well-established banks can trade billions of dollars worth of foreign currencies everyday. Some of the trades are undertaken on behalf of their clients, but most are through proprietary desks.

COMMERCIAL COMPANIES- these commercial companies trade small quantities of foreign currencies compared to larger banks and their trades produce small and short-term impact on the market rates. However, the trade flows from transactions made by commercial companies are essential factors with regards to the long-term direction of the exchange rate of a certain currency.

CENTRAL BANKS- central banks play an important function in the Forex market. They have the control over the supply of different currency, inflation, and interest rate. In addition, they have also official target rates for the currencies that they are handling. They are responsible for stabilizing the Forex market through the use of foreign exchange reserves. Their intervention in the market is enough to stabilize a certain currency.

INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FIRMS- these firms commonly manage huge accounts on behalf of their clients such as endowments and pension funds. They are using the Forex market to facilitate transactions, specifically in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager bearing an international equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currencies to pay for foreign securities purchases.

RETAIL FX BROKERS- they handle a fraction of the total volume of Forex market. A single retail Forex broker estimates retail volume of between 25 to 50 billion dollars each day, which is estimated to be at 2% of the total market volume.

SPECULATORS- these are individuals who purchase and sell foreign currencies and profit through fluctuations on its price as opposed to popular methods such as interest and dividends. They perform the important role of transferring the risk to individuals who do not wish to bear it.

In Forex market alone, there are already six major players partaking on the $1.8 trillion worth of daily turnover. With a large number of Forex players, there is really a need in switching from manual to automated Forex trading system.

Among the aforementioned major Forex players, the automated trading system is of great advantage to the speculators. Since they focus on the price fluctuations of various foreign currencies in order to profit, the real time data analysis will help them determine trades that will give advantage to them.

There are several automated Forex trading systems available in the market. There are also automated Forex systems that are offered for free or as part of their trading account acquired from their Forex brokers or agents. Such complimentary system packages are typically elementary trading system. Thus, if you are looking for more features, you can avail of it through additional payments.

There are two types of automated Forex trading system. These are discussed in the following:

Desktop-based system- all Forex-related data are stored on your desktop's hard drive. This system is unpopular to Forex traders because all data are susceptible to computer virus contamination and other security problems. Worse, when the computer malfunctions, all essential information might be lost and cannot be retrieved (unless you have some back-up files of your own). However, it is little expensive compared to the other types of automated trading system.

Web-based system- the security of your Forex account and other data are provided by your web-based provider. These are hosted on secured servers. It is also convenient in the sense that there will be no software required and it is universally compatible with your Internet browser.

You may also try different automated trading system demos first so that you will be able to determine the automated Forex trading system that suits your personal preference and needs.

Even if you are just a small-time Forex player, it will be to your advantage if you will use an automated Forex trading system for your future trades.