Tampilkan postingan dengan label expert. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label expert. Tampilkan semua postingan

Selasa, 30 September 2014

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Maximizer an Unbiased Review

Today I will be revieweing one of the new trading systems which has been released over the past few weeks. This trading system - called Forex Maximizer - promises you will be earning an income every month in no time, with consistent results that will "not make you a millionaire" but will allow you to "quit the search for a new 9 to 5 job". As always I will analyze the evidence provided by the author and I will see if they are truly able to backup the claims made on the website. By analyzing the evidence I will also be able to tell you the soundness of the trading systems tactics and whether or not the system has a high like hood of being long term profitable. In the end I will give you my fully unbiased opinion of whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Maximizer website starts with the usual marketing hype that we have come to love so much. It talks about the mighty and mystical gurus that dont want you to know their "secret" to profit from the forex market. What particularly bothers me are the statements that follow this guru talk which are just bluntly misleading and which are simply marketing phrases pointed to make people believe that "getting profit in forex is easy", "even if youve never traded", etc. Then the author goes on and on about how most forex robots "suck" and will lose your money but his trading system - which is not a scalper - will have you banking up consistent profits in no time.

However, when it comes to backing up his claims of consistent profitability and actual real earning capabilities this author simply fails bluntly. What we have as evidence of profitability is simply some hand-picked screenshots of trades -which could as well be made by hand- and some pieces of backtesting results and a screenshot of the strategy tester resuts of a one year backtesting statement. We dont have even access to the backtesting statement or the simulations results to adequately know how the simulation turned out.

Why are simulation results limited to only 2009 ? Why arent 10 year results included ? Why isnt the backtesting statement shown ? These things are all supicious because showing more evidence only makes up a stronger case for the seller and the absence of evidence usually points out that this is simply not the case. Additionally, backtesting statements from commercial EA sellers CANNOT BE TRUSTED because there are simply almost infinite ways in which these results can be manipulated to produce profitable results.

In the end, the maximizer trading system has absolutely no proof of profitability with some very limited backtesting results being the only piece of available evidence, since the backtest is not validated this information is also pretty much useless. There are absolutely NO third party investor-access verified live testing accounts needed to proof the systems profitability and to show actual back/live testing consistency. Why in the world would this guy refuse to show us his statements if his system was so profitable ? Even more, why doesnt he show us his statements if he has - as he says- been trading the system for a while ? It is absolutely amazing that someone with so little proof of profitability is even willing to try to sell a system as if it was profitable.

The fact that there is a willingness to hide evidence shown as an absence of backtesting statements and 10 year backtests and the fact that there is simply no third party investor-access verified live account to backup any claims of profitability and validate the backtests shown tell us that the Forex Maximizer system is simply NOT worth buying and testing. If the seller puts up 10 year backtests and shows a 6 month investor-access verified live test with at least 50 trades (and a backtest of the same live testing period) I will redo this review to include the new evidence. Meanwhile, this trading system is nothing but a part of the usually over-hyped trading systems with little -if actually any- evidence of profitability.

If you would like to find an education about automated trading and how you to can develop systems based on sound trading tactics to achieve realistic risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Minggu, 28 September 2014

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Profit Hunter an Unbiased Review

Todays post will also be focused on the review of yet another automated trading system (just when I think Ive reviewed them all !). I found this trading system a few days ago while I was searching the web for expert advisors to review on my website. This expert advisor is called forex profit hunter and it is supposed to be a great trading system. In the word of the author :

"The Secret to Automatically Selecting Winning Trades & Depositing $5,000---$10,000--$15,000 + in Profits Even If You Know Absolutely Nothing About Trading Right Now”

Now after reading all this hype you must think that he may have some very convincing proof to be able to make such bold statements. Well, the truth actually is that this expert advisor creator, as most expert advisor sellers out there, has absolutely no reliable evidence to backup ANY of his claims.

Through the whole sales webpage, the author goes on and on about the reliability of his system and why it is supposed to work for people making money while they sleep. The truth is that he offers no evidence at all to proof that his system can achieve any profitability at all. The only thing that remotely resembles evidence is just a half screenshot of a backtesting statement with some trade pictures after that. What the hell ? I can make those trade pictures myself on metatrader in 5 minutes. I think this guy, as many other trading systems salesmen out there, is treating us like if we where retarded. Guess what ? We are not !

I cannot help to feel some anger everytime I come across a webpage like this. Loads of claims with some extremely bold statements about the profitability of a trading system when there is absolutely NO evidence to prove that. When there is no evidence, you should never believe what sellers tell you. Again, when I say evidence I mean evidence for every claim they make. If they say youll double your account each month, they should have a one year statement showing you can do that, if they say their broker independent then you should expect tests on at least 15 different brokers to confirm this beyond any reasonable doubt. But we dont see this, why ? because systems like this forex profit hunter are just pure hype with no substance whatsoever.

Of course, this system is absolutely NOT worth buying or even looking at. If you would like to learn more about why commercial expert advisors lose money so often and how you can become profitable too using free long term profitable expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

Rabu, 24 September 2014

Why I trust the Gods Gift ATR Expert Advisor

I have always said that one of the main requirements to succeed with an automated trading system is to be able to trust the system and trade it through all market conditions with the assurance that the system will be able to recover from temporary loses. Trusting and knowing how a system works also enables you to know your systems strengths and weaknesses, something which makes trading with it much easier.

One of the systems I have been working on and testing for a while is the Gods gift ATR expert advisor which I programmed based on the original Gods Gift 7c programmmed by Matt Edmonds. Now, after being involved and watching this system trade live for more than 2 months I can start to say why I certainly trust this expert advisor. So why do I exactly trust the way the Gods gift ATR expert advisor trades ? Well, because the experts traiding fulfills some of the most important aspects any profitable trading system should (at least in my opinion).

Adjusts itself to the market : This ea uses the ATR indicator in order to adjust its position sizing and market orders to match a certain percentage of market volatility. This somewhat guarantees that the expert will remain profitable under many market conditions since it is able to adjust itself to the different amplitudes of market movements.

The trend is your friend : The gods gift ATR expert advisor is able to follow trends when they develop by using a trailing stop which lets the expert take advantage of very long trending markets without getting stopped out.

Cut your loses short, let your profits run : The ea is able to cut loses by using an internal closing mechanism which follows many different indicators. This lets the ea exit the market before hitting the stop loss either when the price goes against the trade or when the stop loss is trailed after that price has moved in favor of the trader. This has the clear effect of increasing the ability to follow trends while minimizing the loses generated when the market is not with the trader.

Realistic Profit Expectations with Adequate Risk : The gods gift ea is able of producing 50-100% a year with a draw down not exceeding 20-50% (per back and forward testing results), this is a realistic profit expectation which reflects the conservative way in which the expert advisor trades. The equity curve generated by the ea is globally linear with a neat increase in equity under very varied market conditions.

I consider that the above reasons make the gods gift expert advisor a very unique and sound trading system. The ea has up until now proved to be robust and consistent, something which is a must have for a long term automated trading system. If you would like to learn more about this and other free and commercial expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Senin, 22 September 2014

Forex Autopilot Expert Advisor Unbiased Review

A few weeks ago, I started to feel curious about this new expert advisor everyone seemed to be talking about. I went to its cheesy marketing web page filled with marketing tactic ( where they say things like "75% discount, prices will come back to normal in three days!", date which always seems to be the same one after three days) and I took a try for this expert advisor which sells for a mere 89 USD.

At first, let me say the things that attract forex autopilot customers. It is a very cheap expert advisor compared to most of the profitable ones, which usually cost between a 250 one time fee and a 90 dollar monthly subscription. The webpage is also filled with unneeded ways to shove the idea of richness and desire into peoples minds, you see champagne, cars, etc.

When it comes to putting their money where their mouth is, they still have a long way to go. I must say, I still dont have enough testing data to ensure whether it is a profitable system or not, what I can tell you is why I would never trade this expert advisor in my live accounts.

First, there is the way this expert trades. It opens roughly two trades per day, which seems normally selective, and trades on the EUR/USD one minute timeframe. It then opens orders based on some indicators and lets them run after they either hit the take profit or some indicator based exit signals. This is where we have a conflict. Indicator based exit signals ? As I have seen in forward testing, this expert advisor is comfortable with a 400 pip draw down, as seen before last weeks FOMC meeting. If you put a stoploss on the expert advisor, it fails dramatically.

I am very skeptical about expert advisors which tolerate open draw downs like this, specially this ea. It is reasonable when you have pyramiding expert advisor like Pipforia or Pointbreak that close profits at the end of market cycles, and even these expert advisor have never actually seen an open draw down above 20%. The fact that the autopilot expert advisor doesnt use a stoploss and is quiet conformable with a 400 pip draw down without showing exit signals gives me the creeps.

Well, I have given you the facts I have experienced with this expert advisor. An expert which is tolerable to large open draw downs and that also lacks a consistent money management system. I would have to say, I would never trade it in a live account. Would you ?

Rabu, 17 September 2014

Why Trading With Expert Advisors Requires More Education Than Trading Manually

Reflecting upon all the different aspects of both manual and automated trading systems I realized that educational factors are some of the most important topics of both forms of trading. In fact, most traders lose money in the market when weak psychological factors couple with a lack of education and knowledge about both the systems and the inherent nature of financial markets.

First of all, there is a tendency to think that the forex market can be traded with an automated system without any knowledge of the market or trading. This is totally wrong, and specially for automated trading systems because not only do you need to know how to trade and how the market works but you also need to know how automated systems behave. Now I know you may be asking yourselves "why do I need to know all that information if the system trades by itself ?", well, it is obviously not that simple.

While most people believe that trading an automated trading system requires no knowledge of the market whatsoever I am going to say the complete opposite, it requires even more knowledge than to trade manually. Why ? Because of several psychological and rational factors. First, you need to choose an automated trading system. What is your criteria ? If you have absolutely no knowledge of the forex market your criterias will be wrong. Let me say that again, they will be wrong.

Why do you think commercial sellers tarket their systems the way they do ? They show high risk to reward ratios with high winning percentages, to the inexperienced person with no knowledge about forex trading it looks like a great deal. Why do 30,000 people purchased FAP turbo although it has, in my opinion, the characteristics of an unprofitable system ? that is because most people that bought it have a very shallow understanding of the market and automated trading systems, coupled with a deep desire to earn high profits in a short time.

Now, lets suppose you manage to get a grip on one of the few profitable systems out there. If you have no knowledge about the forex market or how automated trading systems work but you have seen the testimonials that most commercial ea sellers bring up then most probably you will think that your system just does not produce enough capital. Well, for me more than 40% a year is outstandng, most new traders looking for automated trading systems are expecting that every month ! Unrealistic. Sadly this feeding of greed is carried on with enthusiasm by most ea sellers out there shoving unprofitable systems down peoples wallets.

Then you have other factors, maybe your profitable system will only win 1 out of every 10 trades and that will be enough to make it very profitable but you are ignorant of this because you lack an understanding of how the system trades so you psychologically feel like a loser after 5 consecutive loses and decide to stop trading the system.

As you can see, almost all of the problems associated with people buying and losing money with unprofitable trading systems is based on people being ignorant and this is a direct consequence of people wating money without effort. Well, as someone said once, if you think education is expensive, you dont know the cost of ignorance. If you would like to learn more about choosing expert advisors as well as commercial and free expert advisors I have reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Kamis, 04 September 2014

Forex Expert Advisors Shark by forexeasystems com an Unbiased Review

Today I am going to focus on the review of a very interesting trading system called Shark, made by the people at forexeasystems.com. I have to say that I bought shark almost one year and a half ago and therefore I have a lot of experience with this expert advisor and I feel I have traded it enough to give a deep opinion about it beyond the actual evidence provided by the authors on their website.

First of all, I have to say that I purchased shark because I considered it a likely profitable trading system. The system at the time seemed to have important live testing testing and backtesting performance that showed the expert to be profitable at least certainly from 2007 to 2008. Back live testing consistency was not perfect but it was good enough as to consider the backtesting, although over optimistic still predictive in someway about the experts profitability during past market conditions.

After purchasing this expert and trading it on several brokers and several demo and live accounts I have to say that I utterly and totally dissappointed. I have to say that through all the testing I have done on FXDD, FxLite, IBFX and FxClearing on demo and live accounts I have not been able to reproduce a single month of forward testing results from the people at forexeasystems. I loaded the EA following their instructions, always traded the latest updates but I could never reach, as a matter of fact, even a profitable single month. This expert advisor actually got a live accoutn down more than 30% once, traded on the same level of risk as the account shown on their website.

I dont know why this very important differences between my trading and their trading arises. I tried demo and live accounts on several brokers, and I have got the statements that show this to be absolutely true. However, as I said, I have never been able to reach a single month of profit with this EA. After about a year of trying I finally stopped trying on April when testing from February revealed loses every month and absolutely no correlation with their live or forward testing with my account having much larger loses. My newsletter susbcribers can take a look at this by accessing the trading results zip, located on the root of the ftp server in which the results for sharks trading are included.

I have to say, I would not recommend buying this to anyone as the unprofitability of this EA is absolutely evident to me after one year and half of trading it, as I said, on both demo and live accounts. If you would like to learn more about how you can evaluate expert advisors or how you can distinguish between long term profitable and unprofitable trading strategies please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Rabu, 03 September 2014

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Maestro an Unbiased Review

I recently received a pair of requests from website visitors who wanted my opinion on the "forex maestro" expert advisor system. The truth is that I had seen the website sometime in the past and my opinion about it now is exactly the same as it was then. Who the hell do they think they are selling these products to ? I mean, each time I write one of these reviews and each time I enter one of these websites I get the same feeling. Are they selling us something to invest with ? Or are they selling us a lottery ticket ?

The forex maestro website is yet another example of very fine marketing applied to a forex oriented product. Your welcomed to the webpage with claims that say " You Can Make $2 Million With Currency Trading" . This by itself is a direct hint at the market group these people are aiming at. Every expert advisor that states such claims is obviously aimed at new forex traders who want to make huge returns on investment. The website is carefully engineered towards people who are new to forex and investing altogether. The story itself about the guy feeling "desperate" and then realizing how to "profit" during his sleep sounds just like it was written to make the traders sympathetic towards the author.

But well, I always try to give expert advisors a chance, regardless of their very ethically lacking selling techniques. At first, from the claims made on the website, the system sounds definetely like a "scalper", there would be no other way to attain such a high winning percentage except by having a very large risk to reward ratio. This in my opinion is far from ideal. We also dont even get backtesting information as to evaluate the trading strategy, or the possible consistency, relability, draw down and other aspects of the trading system.

With all that said, I consider that the forex maestro system is absolutely not worth buying. The creator should provide much much more testing information, including live account information with investor access and a good amount of backtesting. I consider it insulting and deeply unethical how this people try to sell a system whose evidence of profitability is absolutely lacking. Finally, if you wish to learn more about other automated and free expert advisors systems I have tested and reviewed
please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Minggu, 24 Agustus 2014

Expert Advisor Piracy It Will Cost you Money

During 2009 many things have changed within the expert advisor and automated trading industry. We have seen many commercial expert advisors surfacing like megadroid, fap turbo, robominer, etc ; we have seen an incredible increase in strategies with very high risk to reward ratios and of course, we have seen an increased number of people losing money in the automated trading industry. Another very important development within the industry is the surfacing of many expert advisor decompilers for the ex4 files compiled with the metatrader editor.

Of course, the consequence of having a widely available decompiler is that many people started to decompile commercial expert advisors to get a look at their trading logic. This is by no means wrong or illegal as US law and most other countries laws allow someone to decompile software to see its inner working unless a specific EULA preventing this is signed (this is not the case for most expert advisors). My main concern is with the later use and distribution of this code for free for other traders to use.

The distribution of copyright material without permission from the authors is unlawful in every country. Most people say that if they had to buy every expert advisor they would go broke and that is the reason why they prefer to download the full versions for free, illegaly. Well, the fact that you cant buy every car model does not justify going out there and robbing cars, doesnt it ?
The fact that some expert advisor creators are dishonest and are just after the customers money does not also justify software piracy.

What you need to know is to really know how to evaluate an expert advisor and use it. The fact is that if you knew how to do this you would not buy 99% of the experts out there. It makes no sense to get this experts illegally and use them in your live trading accounts. If you do not have a good understanding of automated trading systems you will just lose your money, your trading money, just like if you had bought the original useless software. My advice is that you learn, read, program and know everything you can know about trading and automated trading systems. Do not go out and break the law, just because it fits your lazyness, I tell you, it will cost you a lot of money.

If you want to learn more about free and commercial expert advisors I have bought, tested and reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Senin, 18 Agustus 2014

The SDS or Simple Daily System A Free Worth Testing Expert Advisor

Readers of my newsletter have known about this trading system for a little bit more than a month. The SDS or Simple Daily System was created conjunctively at forex-tsd.com . I, in particular, have been using a version of this ea programmed by a person whose online alias is Derek.

The expert advisor is programmed to follow long term trends based in part on the PSAR market indicator. What I like a lot about this expert advisor is the fact that it uses a money management technique referred to as DAlembert money management. This tecnique simply increases lot sizes linearly with loses in order to ensure faster equity recoveries. It is ideal for expert advisors that rarely suffer from large streaks of consecutive loses but are likely to have several win, loss, win, loss sequences and several profitable trades.

Almost every expert advisor may be extremely improved by additions of proper money management and this is a great example of this. Without this system, the SDS ea would be a practical loser since its winning trades do not overcome its loses by great numbers and even sometimes fall behind as per backtesting. However, introduction of this money management greatly increases the odds of this expert making substantial profits.

You should also take into account that people at forex-tsd.com often overtrade their systems. Most of them have tested this expert on several currency pairs at the same time when this is a sure way of losing with this system as you risk about 25% equity draw down for each 5% of consistent monthly profit you want to make.

I have forward tested this expert (EUR/USD daily) for the past month and up until now, it has fulfilled my expectations. The current rangy EUR/USD market is sure to let us know whether this expert will or will not be considered likely profitable. If you want to take a look at the trading statements or learn more about this and other free and commercial expert advisors I have reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Minggu, 17 Agustus 2014

The 8and8 EA A Hopefully Profitable Expert Advisor

During this past few days, I had been implementing the 8and8 daily trading system into a forex expert advisor. When I finished coding the system and started back testing its daily trading results, I realized that the system is unprofitable as an automated trading system due to the excessively large amount of mixed signals generated from the cross of two indicators. As it usually happens with crossing systems, whipsawing becomes a very hard problem to solve. On this months daily chart, which is shown below, I tried to pinpoint the places that caused heavy loses due to intense crossing of the EMA and the RSI indicators.
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The system does much better manually because trades are taken in a very discretionary manner. For example, you would not take a trade against the main trend when there is an important support/resistance level ithat has to be reached in sight. These things are not visible to automated trading systems (that easily), so it becomes very problematic and the experts fail when they have fixed SL and TP orders.

My first attempt was to try to fix the stoploss and take profit problems by making them ATR adjustable (hey ! its my flavour of the month and it really works !). Sadly, the whipsawing problem absolutely killed the idea as too many bad entires happened due to the intense crossing of the two indicators (still it was much better than the original).

I then started to think about the expert advisors I know that are at least likely profitable, Gods Gift, Simple Daily System, etc. I realized that their logic often involves some sort of volatility/range condition filter so that positions can only be entered when strong trends happen.

After struggling for several days with the idea and doing a ton of optimization with several range and volatility filtering ideas, I came up with the expert advisor I am presenting you now. The result ? A very clean equity curve in backtesting from 1999 to 2008 (EUR/USD). The expert advisor does a great job at filtering range conditions and just trading when the conditions are "right". Although the rules changed a little from the original 8and8 system, you could say that the main idea "daily trend following" is alive inside this modified trading system. The main modification is a simple filter based on the ADX indicator which makes the ea not to trade in raning market conditions. Lot sizing adjusted to volatility was also added.

Below you can see the backtesting image of the expert (from 1999 to 2008, modeling quality is n/a because of several mismatch errors in my 1999 and 2000 data but becomes 90% once you test from 2001 (2001 to 2009 is exactly the same anyway)).
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Now, you may be asking yourselves if I intend to sell or give away this ea for free. Of course, it is available to anyone who buys my automated trading ebook or subscribes to my newsletter but feel free to buy me a cup of coffee and email me if this ea is all you want (a link is available at the bottom left for this). The ea is profitable according to backtesting although its maximum draw down and yearly profits are almost alike, so you could expect a 50% yearly profit with a 40% maximum draw down. It will be forward tested from next week.

Other, expert advisors like Gods Gift (specially my ATR modified version if you read the last post !) and the Simple Daily System are free expert advisors that do make profits and will most likely continue to do so in the future, if you would like to learn more about them and their settings please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Sabtu, 16 Agustus 2014

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Monster an unbiased Review

I have to say that it is very hard to keep up with everything that comes out everyday on the forex expert advisor market and I would really like to thank you guys for telling me about new experts that come out so that I may check them out and review them. Of course, I always hope that one of these systems will be able to go through my criteria for long term profitable profitability but I am still waiting for that to happen ! Now, I am going to review an expert advisor called forex monster, suggested to me by a person who left a message on the chat (it is on the bottom left of the webpage if you would liket o leave a message).

Well, forex monsters webpage greets us to what seems to be a part of a backtesting summary with a huge sign on top saying it can make you 500% profit, not mentioned the time it requires to do so. You should also look at how conviniently the part of the backtesting summary that shows the modeling quality is ommited, very convinient ! Also, why is there no access to the actual backtesting detailed statement ? Things are starting to look a little bit suspicious already.

Now this guy shows us 20 days of trading and calls it "proof" that the system can make a certain amount of profit, which is of course, completely absurd since first, we dont know if that is a backtesting statement, a forwards testing or a live testing statement. We dont know the rest and we certainly do not why the testing stopped there if that testing was done 8 months ago. I mean, if I was an EA seller and I wanted to sell my product, assuming Im telling the truth, I would want to have as much evidence as I can to support my claims. So why doesnt he show any more backtesting or live testing since at least January 2009 ? When this testing statement was issued ?

Looking at the statement there is nothing notoriously obvious about the trading logic that could make this system wipe your account. I could say that it would eventually fail when the market changes as position sizing and stop loss and take profit are rigid. However, this system is most probably geared to take profit of breakouts in high volatility environments, which is why I guess it worked at the beginning of the year when the market was terribly volatile because of all the market crisis. As you see, the system is obviously not a long term profitable system but saying how risky it is something I cannot do without more testing information.

This system is NOT worth buying clearly because the author does NOT show any information to backup his claims. He could get this information pretty easily if he really traded this expert advisor on his live accounts. Why not show us his account statements ? Well, the thing is that this person probably makes his money from selling that system to innocent victims and has never traded it live. If he has, he can show us all his statements with investor access so that we can confirm them and Ill be glad to say he is an honest seller who just happened to "miss" placing the proof on his website. Needless to say, why am I feeling this wont happen ?

If you would like to learn more about how you can evaluate expert advisors and how you too can profit with automated trading with realistic profit expectations and draw downs please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

Sabtu, 21 Juni 2014

Profitable Expert Adviors are Unmarketable

I have spent a good chunk of this and last week analyzing commercial expert advisor systems extensively, trying to assess their profitability and write reviews that can help retail traders out there who dont want to lose their money in something that does not work at all. A very strange thing I have found while doing my research is that most people look for expert advisors that have characteristics that differ a lot from what I would consider the main features of a profitable trading system.

The regular new forex trader who wants to use an automated system usually looks for a system with a given set of properties. I have deduced, from commercial expert advisor sites (including the ones with the cheesy marketing stuff), that people will preferably buy expert advisors that trade a lot and have high percentages of winning trades. Physiologically people like to know they will "lose" less often.

Now, profitable expert advisor, from what I have been able to analyze, have almost exactly opposite characteristics. They have low winning percentages and they trade rather infrequently. Of course, this is almost unmarketable. Most people will utterly reject a system which has a 10% winning percentage and a trading frequency of 1-2 trades per month. Well, that would mean winning 1 trade a year, most people cannot deal with that, they want the constant gratification of winning all the time, even if that means being unprofitable overall.

Of course, people are not brain dead and will take a profitable system once it is proven to them, but they are much more prone to accept evidence (false or true) about a system with the characteristics they desire, rather than a system with the profile shown below.

What they usually forget is that systems with low winning percentages that trade infrequently are often trend followers which try to catch big pip moves, so they may lose 90% of the trades but the trades that profit are almost 20 times larger than the losers, making the expert overall very profitable. The turtle trading system is a very good example of this, it loses very frequently and requires a lot of discipline to trade but it is profitable in the long run.

If you would like to learn more about what expert advisors, both free and commercial, I have tested and found likely profitable, please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Jumat, 20 Juni 2014

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Knight Rider an Unbiased Review

Yesterday while searching the internet for new expert advisors I found a new trading system which I had not reviewed. This trading system, called Forex Knight Rider will be the focus of todays post. As with the other experts I have reviewed, today I am going to go through the forex knight rider website evaluating the authors claims against the evidence provided on the site. I will then analyze the evidence closely and give you my opinion about the potential of this expert for long term profitability and if it is or if it is not worth buying and testing. Please remember that my reviews are as unbiased as they can be as I get no reward for any positive or negative feedback on the expert advisor. I just call them like I see them.

If you are looking for the regular hyped website with absurd claims and little evidence, then you have found your match with forex knight rider. The EA starts up with some bold claims of making 28K within three months from 50K, that is, a profit higher than 50% in just three months. What is there to back up the claims made by these people ? Actually the claims are only based on backtesting results. The problem with this is that backtesting results coming from EA sellers cannot be trusted because there are too many ways in which backtesting can be exploited to achieve these unrealistic results. This is specially true when you look at the EA trading strategy which involves closing trades within a 4-6 pip range. Closing trades on such a small movement WILL generate some serious problems due to one minute interpolation errors. Since they do not show us any live tests to show back/live testing consistency then we have no other choice but to consider the back tests unreliable. Why they make claims of real profit based on simulation simply eludes me as this is extremely misleading and borderline illegal.

The things we are shown after this just go off the charts of hype and wrong doing of commercial EA sellers. Useless pictures of trades and best of all, some "testimonials" with "live" accounts to which there is no investor access to confirm or any myfxbook access that could also confirm their authenticity. Another reason to believe that these live tests are fake is pretty obvious. See Tony Alberto from Canada ? Well, he is more well known in the internet as "Close-up office portrait of a young man". What a joke ! Why do they treat us like we were retarded ? We can also search for royalty free images and find their fake pictures of their fake testimonials ! Present FTC regulations forbid the use of fake pictures to represent clients so what they are doing IS illegal according to US regulations.
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Forex Knight Rider is nothing more than an extremely hyped EA with unethical marketing practices that has absolutely no hard evidence to backup its claims. Another very good example of how things should NOT be done in business. For all the lack of evidence to show any profitability or likehood of long term profitability I consider the forex knight rider NOT worth buying or testing. If you would like to know more about the way in which I evaluate expert advisors and how you too can design and program long term profitable systems with reliable profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Kamis, 19 Juni 2014

Metatrader 4 Expert Advisor Programming

Well, many of you may know about me being an avid forex software reviewer but few of you know that I actually do program expert advisors using the mql4 language. In my actual career, as a chemist, I had to develop some serious programming skills in c++ and Fortran to develop highly efficient computational chemistry algorithms for quantum mechanical calculations. Since mql4 is so similar to c it is pretty straightforward to go from my regular programming habits to programming expert advisors for Metatrader 4 and the forex market.

I have never thought about selling my skills or selling expert advisors I program as I mostly use metatrader 4 programming as a way to learn more about the forex market and the ways to be profitable in it.

However, I have noticed that many people out there who do not know how to program may have some interesting ideas to create automated trading systems which they have not developed due to the lack of a programmer, money, etc. This is why I am offering this post as a way for people to post their ideas (so that I can program those that I consider most likely).

Please beware that there are certain prerequisites about any system :

- Must have been forward tested manually for at least 2 months, it does not matter if it wasnt tested 24/7, I just want to know that there are some results.
- Must not be based on Martingale, Hedges or Grids (these do not work, I promise)
- Must not be a scalping system. I am not interested in programming this type of systems as I know that they dont work universally and that most of them cannot be backtested accurately and are very sensitive to broker data, spread changes, slippage, etc.
- Systems with risk to reward ratios over 2:1. This type of systems have a much harder time being profitable than systems with better risk to reward ratios.

If your system meets the above criteria then you should also provide :

- Clear entry rules
- Clear exit rules (particularly important)
- Other important rules for the system
- Profit on your manual trading period and draw downs experienced

It is important that you explain your system in a crystal clear way so that it can be programmed accurately. If you would like to learn about more expert advisors, both commercial and free I have reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Rabu, 18 Juni 2014

Forex News Trading Free Expert Advisor

One of the most interesting things about the forex market is that changes in fundamental data change the global "outlook perception" of a currency for traders and hence mark dramatic changes in price during very small time windows. Trading these spikes caused by fundamentals being changed is called "news trading" because the trader chooses to enter and exit the market at the time when important economic news are released and the market experiences bast levels of volatility.

Trading the news often demands cat like reflexes and the ability to enter orders at the speed of light (or near it !) in order to keep a profit, stop a loss, etc. News trading is also dangerous in the sense that prices can gap for even 100 or 200 pips, making your loss far greater than what you thought it would be. Long story short, news trading is difficult if not because of the volatility and big chances of getting whipsaws, because of the inherent difficulties of trading and making clear decisions in such bad market times.

News trading expert advisors basically work by placing two market buy and sell stop orders at some pip distance from the price, one minute or more before the news release. What the ea wants to predict is a quick change in price which is caught quickly with the aid of the opening orders. This of course, does not work all the time because prices can "bounce" and leave you with no actual clear direction during a news release. Specially when news are confusion, you almost always find candles with gigantic shadows but not too much overall movement. Luckily, most of the time the news do move the markets in one specific direction and often for 100 pips or more. For example, the NFP (non farm payrolls) release moves the EUR/USD by more than 100 pips in average.

So how do we trade this news releases ? (You should first start trying this ea on a demo account, until you are comfortable with the way it works) You can use the ea provided here in order to trade the news in forex. The ea (developed by branac at forexfactory.com) enables you to place 2 orders 1 minute before the set time for the news release arrives (check your time zone and your broker time in order to adjust this time setting correctly). Now set the SL and TP values to the values you want to use as both Stop Loss and Take Profit (use a small stop loss and large take profit for better results, for example SL=30, TP=80) and variable (2) as the amount of pips away from the current price you want to place the orders. Use a wide enough value (30-50) in order to ensure that whipsaws are minimized as much as possible !

I hope this news trading ea proves profitable to all the forex traders out there looking for a solution to trade news releases in mt4. If you want to learn more about more commercial and free expert advisors I have reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !